Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-10 2.093624 2.202268 2.318664 2.453605 2.607022 2.777636 2.984098
2025-08-17 1.968190 2.104045 2.255111 2.437927 2.656662 2.914908 3.251128
2025-08-24 1.882914 2.034990 2.208479 2.424975 2.694085 3.027153 3.488408
2025-08-31 1.818334 1.981798 2.172044 2.415372 2.727583 3.130144 3.720242
2025-09-07 1.778111 1.952858 2.160013 2.431197 2.790048 3.272326 4.023702
2025-09-14 1.702670 1.876799 2.085042 2.360745 2.731209 3.239775 4.058412
2025-09-21 1.665253 1.844781 2.062121 2.354483 2.756071 3.324859 4.287415
2025-09-28 1.618072 1.798388 2.018440 2.317603 2.734699 3.338412 4.397762
2025-10-05 1.609797 1.799596 2.034561 2.360181 2.826836 3.530781 4.859086
2025-10-12 1.609796 1.810712 2.063283 2.420715 2.949057 3.785629 5.516526
2025-10-19 1.582587 1.785845 2.043431 2.412068 2.966274 3.868248 5.842046
2025-10-26 1.560929 1.767236 2.030874 2.412609 2.996909 3.976776 6.264334
2025-11-02 1.516330 1.718689 1.978022 2.355051 2.935792 3.920173 6.274371
2025-11-09 1.490277 1.693488 1.955612 2.340237 2.941337 3.986103 6.635929
2025-11-16 1.466828 1.670916 1.935812 2.327994 2.949670 4.057704 7.048899
2025-11-23 1.445905 1.651005 1.918838 2.318878 2.962081 4.138375 7.537192
2025-11-30 1.434361 1.643039 1.917776 2.333063 3.013972 4.305518 8.449146
2025-12-07 1.396638 1.599301 1.865893 2.268365 2.926907 4.171163 8.116634
2025-12-14 1.380297 1.583819 1.852956 2.262438 2.941144 4.255514 8.753744
2025-12-21 1.355358 1.556274 1.822436 2.228460 2.904410 4.224704 8.870950
2025-12-28 1.355363 1.562210 1.838942 2.267364 2.998669 4.500224 10.823639
2026-01-04 1.360301 1.574837 1.865181 2.322615 3.127599 4.889929 14.810719
2026-01-11 1.345661 1.560337 1.852071 2.314615 3.137795 4.984974 16.932827